Analysis of the March Employment Report
Job growth was well ahead of Dow Jones estimates for 675,000 and the fastest since August 2020.
· Temporary help lost 800 jobs in March. The monthly winning streak ends at 10 as many, many open orders go unfilled.
· A more encompassing measure of unemployment (U6) that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons dropped to 10.7% from 11.1% in February.
· Previous months also were revised considerably higher. The January total increased 67,000 to 233,000, while February’s revisions brought the total up by 89,000 to 468,000.
· Prime age labor force participation rate (ages 25-54) was flat this month at 81.3%. While the number has improved since April, it is still down by 1.6% since February 2020, the last month before the pandemic started.
· The overall labor force participation held steady to 61.5%. This is 1.8% below last February (2020) level. 327,000 reentered the workforce last month.
· Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls fell by 4 cents to $29.96.
· The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was up .3 to 34.9 hours in January. In manufacturing, the workweek was up .2 to 40.5 hours, and overtime up .1 at 3.3 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was up .3 to 34.3 hours.
· APD reported that 517,000 jobs were created in March
JOLTS Report April 6, 2021
U.S. job openings rose to a two-year high in February while hiring picked up as strengthening domestic demand amid increased COVID-19 vaccinations, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report. The job openings rate increased to 4.9% from 4.7% in January. The quits and discharged rate(s) stayed steady.
Job Openings
· On the last business day of February, the number and rate of job openings rose to 7.4 million and 4.9 percent, respectively. Job openings increased in health care and social assistance (+233,000); accommodation and food services (+104,000); and arts, entertainment, and recreation (+56,000).
Hires
· In February, the number of hires edged up to 5.7 million (+273,000). The hires rate was little changed at 4.0 percent. Hires increased in accommodation and food services (+220,000).
Separations
· Total separations include quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.
· In February, the number and rate of total separations were little changed at 5.5 million and 3.8 percent, respectively. The total separations level decreased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-97,000) and in federal government (-17,000). Total separations increased in construction (+90,000); state and local government education (+51,000); and educational services (+36,000). Total separations were little changed in all four regions.
· In February, the quits level and rate were little changed at 3.4 million and 2.3 percent, respectively.
Net Change In Employment
· Over the 12 months ending in February, hires totaled 72.3 million and separations totaled 80.9 million, yielding a net employment loss of 8.6 million. These totals include workers who may have been hired and separated more than once during the year.
Source: ADP, BLS, CNBC
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